Saturday, February 4, 2012

And About that Labor Participation Rate and The Supposed Headline Unemployment Rate

"CNBC's Rick Santelli: You know what I said at 8:30 Eastern? We want a million jobs an hour. That's what we want. What we got looked like a good report. I said, 'Let's get the calculator out,' and I did. And so did a boatload of my sources and big blogs that many people read like Zero Hedge. The labor force participation rate, if you look at non-seasonally adjusted, a fresh low going back to April of '83. If you look at seasonally adjusted, a fresh low participation rate going back to December of '81. What does that mean in English? Shrinkage. Shrinkage. 1.2 million people are now not considered unemployed anymore. They just have left the system. So, we need to concentrate on the internals, and eventually we want to watch the fixed income market to see if some of this sets in as people do their ciphering." - Real Clear Politics, 02/03/2012

"A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement." -ZeroHedge, 02/03/2012

The entire articles, Real Clear Politics and ZeroHedge, appear in the links below. Be sure to note the charts in the ZeroHedge article:

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