Showing posts with label Keynesianism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Keynesianism. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

May 2012 Abysmal Jobs Report: Keynesianism and How It Would be Different This Time.


Regarding the May jobs report released Friday 06/01/2012, yet another abysmal jobs report, making three straight jobs reports of subaqueous nature, the headline unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2%.


Even more ominous is the anemic 69,000 jobs created in May were mostly part-time positions. The bright spot being that the labor participation rate increased slightly as 642,000 people entered or re-entered the labor force seeking employment. (1)


Although more are seeking work there remains a vast reservoir of discouraged workers estimated at upwards of 4 million that remain outside the labor force. That is, if the labor force participation rate was at its historic average then headline unemployment would be well into double digits.


A politically framed argument coming from the Obama Administration is that the Great Recession is such a vast and deep recession that the recession in and of itself is yielding the poor jobs number. Conversely, the same administration advertises yet another argument that the jobs created or “saved” by the same administration numbers in the millions during the same vast and deep recession. Which makes one wonder which argument is one to believe as the two arguments are divergent? -Or- is neither argument valid?


Regarding the Keynesian deficit spending plan also known as “the stimulus plan”, one must keep in mind that a so called stimulus plan is designed, as Keynesians depict it, as a “jump start”. That is, the stimulus plan is not in and of itself suppose to cause a recovery in employment rather the stimulus is supposedly going to cause the private sector to begin producing and hence employing. Stated alternatively, the stimulus supposedly creates the environment for the private sector to recover and it’s the private sector recovery that then drives employment.




In Friedman and Schwartz's book the Great Contraction 1929-1933 there is a compelling if not empirical argument of the Federal Reserve being way too tight in 1929, followed by the Fed's ongoing contribution [or failure to alleviate] the massive decline in the money stock leading to fractional banking in reverse.... and these items contributed to the Great Depression as well as lengthening and deepening the depression.


Fast forward to The Great Recession. Bernanke deploys Friedman and Schwartz’s prescription and does not allow the money stock to contract. However, according to F.A. Hayek monetary policy has limitations. Hence with the money stock in a non-contraction phase and reverse fractional banking avoided, monetary policy has been deployed successfully and to count on monetary policy to do much more is pushing monetary policy limits.


Given the above, in both instances, Great Depression and Great Recession, Keynesian deficit spending plans were deployed. Keep in mind that the two items that receive the most attention regarding economic argument, debate, research, etc. regarding the Great Depression are Keynesian deficit spending and Federal Reserve policy. One must then consider the monetary policy was successfully deployed during the Great Recession via lessons learned from the Great Depression. This leaves only the other major component to discuss which is Keynesian deficit spending.


If, as the argument goes, as well as empirical evidence points to, the Great Depression was deepened and lengthened by both Federal Reserve policy AND Keynesian deficit spending plans aka stimulus.....and in the Great Recession the Federal Reserve policy was corrected via Friedman and Schwartz through Bernanke ....then the deepening and lengthening of the Great Recession only has the other policy component in common with the Great Depression: Keynesian deficit spending.

Whereas the monetary component of the Great Depression was empirically studied by Friedman and Schwartz and a policy prescription was developed and subsequently deployed during the Great Recession with resulting success, what about the deployment of Keynesian deficit spending during the Great Recession? Was Keynesian deficit spending deployed due to empirical work showing a policy prescription leading to success -or- was Keynesian deficit spending deployed based on the notional position of “it will be different this time”?


There is a mountain of empirical evidence that Keynesian deficit spending plans do not jump start anything. The track record of Keynesian deficit spending plans appear to lengthen recessions which was predicted by F.A. Hayek during the Great Depression [Hayek predicted the lengthening of the Great Depression via Keynesian deficit spending and did so in the mist of the Great Depression i.e. predicted in real time during the Great Depression].


Below are three observation regarding Keynesian deficit spending plans and Keynesianism itself that may shed some insight:


“Keynes was exceedingly effective in persuading a broad group—economists, policymakers, government officials, and interested citizens—of the two concepts implicit in his letter to Hayek: first, the public interest concept of government; second, the benevolent dictatorship concept that all will be well if only good men are in power. Clearly, Keynes’s agreement with “virtually the whole” of the Road to Serfdom did not extend to the chapter titled “Why the Worst Get on Top.”


Keynes believed that economists (and others) could best contribute to the improvement of society by investigating how to manipulate the levers actually or potentially under control of the political authorities so as to achieve desirable ends, and then persuading benevolent civil servants and elected officials to follow their advice. The role of voters is to elect persons with the right moral values to office and then let them run the country. -
Milton Friedman (2)





For policy, the central fact is that Keynesian policy recommendations have no sounder basis, in a scientific sense, than recommendations of non-Keynesian economists or, for that matter, none economists. - Lucas and Sargent (3)




This way lies charlatanism and worse. To act on the belief that we possess the knowledge and the power which enable us to shape the processes of society entirely to our liking, knowledge which in fact we do not possess, is likely to make us do much harm.

But in the social field the erroneous belief that the exercise of some power would have beneficial consequences is likely to lead to a new power to coerce other men being conferred on some authority. Even if such power is not in itself bad, its exercise is likely to impede the functioning of those spontaneous ordering forces by which, without understanding them, man is in fact so largely assisted in the pursuit of his aims. - F.A. Hayek (4)




One must consider that Keynesian deficit spending and Keynesianism itself is more akin to a political science proposition than an economic proposition. That is, the basic premise is that politicos can manipulate an economy. That somehow politico intervention distorting market forces makes for good economics. That the proposition itself, Keynesianism, has little empirical economic basis and is more akin to political notion.


Returning to the beginning regarding the abysmal jobs reports, high persistent headline unemployment and with an army of discouraged workers, one has consider that Keynesian deficit spending plans, regarding the notional proposition “that it will be different this time”, in reality was: “that it will be the same this time” i.e. another failure of the political proposition known as Keynesian deficit spending.


Notes:


(1) America's Transition To A Part-Time Worker Society Accelerates As Part-Time Jobs Hit Record, 06/02/2012, Zero Hedge


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/americas-transition-part-time-worker-society-accelerates-part-time-jobs-hit-record


(2) Milton Friedman, Richmond Federal Reserve Economic Quarterly, volume 83/2 Spring 1997.
http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/1997/spring/pdf/friedman.pdf


(3) After Keynesian Economics aka After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, page 57, Lucas and Sargent.

http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf19/conf19d.pdf


(4) F.A. Hayek, from the essay The Pretense of Knowledge









Thursday, April 19, 2012

The Purposely Politico-Designed Rent Seeker Extravaganza


How did it come to the point that federal, state and local government systems are perceived as rent seeking opportunities? Moreover, do such systems then lend to a notion that rent seeking is a natural, acceptable and everyday way of doing business?



Beyond Buchanan and Tullock and all the other public choice theory leaders from the school of thought known as the Virginia School of Political Economy, one of the best quotes that sums up the current atmosphere for rent seeking was made long ago:



 "The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." - Frederic Bastiat, French economist, 1850



 Hence what you are watching, observing and playing out is the end product of Bastiat’s observation in which people manipulate a system and those same people think it's perfectly fine, natural and required to play the game of rent seeking as it’s at someone else’s expense.







How did Bastiat’s observation come to be present reality? The present U.S. state, local and federal environment for rent seeking [beyond the mechanics explained in public choice theory which is an explanation of how it all works after the environment is created] goes back to the 1930's:



 “Keynes was exceedingly effective in persuading a broad group—economists, policymakers, government officials, and interested citizens—of the two concepts implicit in his letter to Hayek: first, the public interest concept of government; second, the benevolent dictatorship concept that all will be well if only good men are in power. Clearly, Keynes’s agreement with “virtually the whole” of the Road to Serfdom did not extend to the chapter titled “Why the Worst Get on Top.”

Keynes believed that economists (and others) could best contribute to the improvement of society by investigating how to manipulate the levers actually or potentially under control of the political authorities so as to achieve desirable ends, and then persuading benevolent civil servants and elected officials to follow their advice. The role of voters is to elect persons with the right moral values to office and then let them run the country."



- Milton Friedman, Richmond Federal Reserve Economic Quarterly, volume 83/2 Spring 1997.



 The concept of politicos manipulating the levers is an important Keynesian axiom that is missed by many as they want to concentrate on spending, debt, tax, Keynesian economic models, etc.



 The achievement of desirable ends is another item much overlooked. That "outcomes" can somehow be managed in a complex society through political planning. That is an erroneous assumption and one can merely point to the results as evidence. However, consider this observation:



 "This way lies charlatanism and worse. To act on the belief that we possess the knowledge and the power which enable us to shape the processes of society entirely to our liking, knowledge which in fact we do not possess, is likely to make us do much harm.


But in the social field the erroneous belief that the exercise of some power would have beneficial consequences is likely to lead to a new power to coerce other men being conferred on some authority. Even if such power is not in itself bad, its exercise is likely to impede the functioning of those spontaneous ordering forces by which, without understanding them, man is in fact so largely assisted in the pursuit of his aims." - F.A. Hayek, from the essay The Pretense of Knowledge



 The next proposition one should consider is the size and scope of government. That the mere "size" creates the environment for shenanigans. From $800 defence department toilet seats, to recent GSA parties, to our subject at hand of rent seeking are all magnified by such size and scope. That is, if government was limited in size and scope then shenanigans, would too, in the main, be limited in size and scope.



 What has been purposely-political developed is a giant hulking money trap run by politicos and the manipulation thereof by politicos creates an environment of rent seeking purposely promoted by the system itself [a politically driven economy directed by politicos through the mechanaism of government rather than an economic driven economy directed by free people in free markets, with government also based on economics rather than pure politics] as well as the size of the system itself [the sheer size makes it out of control at the margins].


F.A. Hayek made an observation many years ago that identifies the above problems as well as offers a solution. It’s a solution not a panacea. Hayek observed that if the greater public wants collective action to address a need or desire [defence, education, fire protection, welfare, social security, etc., etc.] then government through collective action can tax to create funds to address such items.


Keep this in mind: a tax created to fund. One then must examine a fork in the road. How does one then go from the "fund created" to implementation of the "action" that the fund is intends to do??


Hayek argued two choices exist for the created fund leading to the action phase: act through the private sector or deliver through a created public sector. That is, if you now want the "action" to occur, the delivery method appears as the next step and two distinct choices appear: private or public.


The politico opts for public means as political power is gained in a much greater magnitude than opting for private delivery of the action. The political power leads to dependent political constituency building of the public sector workers themselves and others that now supply items to the now public and politico directed delivery system.

 Therefore, in the main, what you see, experience, and lament as "government" is not an economic organization, it’s a pure political machine of the nth degree by, for, and designed by politicos. The rent seeking pattern is promoted by the purposely built political system. Further, rent seeking is welcomed by the same politicos running the system as the rent seeking activity further dependent political constituency exercises that politicos depend upon.












Thursday, December 22, 2011

Macro Santa And The Austerity Grinch - Forbes 12/22/2011

“The year is nearly over. The holidays have arrived. The news media is stirring with visions of holiday consumer spending sugar plums, terrifying debt crisis, and depression. ‘Tis the season for John Maynard Keynes! That’s right, there’s no better time to reflect on the maestro of modern macro and more importantly his many modern followers. Each year the public enjoys a sleigh full of Keynesianism shoved down our collective chimneys by a media obsessed with Christmas consumer spending because “we have a consumer economy”, or so we’re told. Nothing gets that so-called “marginal propensity to consume” into high gear like the holidays!

Indeed, Lord Keynes is our modern Macro Santa.

Like Santa’s busy elves, today’s Keynesian economists believe that when we’re in an economic rut, government spending transforms into a magical debt-financed multiplier sack, able to create a limitless bounty of goodies. Meanwhile, they warn that our current woes are because the “austerity” Grinch has stolen Christmas! The only way for us to get the recovery bell to ring is to close our eyes and believe in the magic of Macro Santa“.

 

“American pundits and macro partisans love the stimulus. As for the actual Japanese citizens subjected to it? Not so much. As nobel-prize winning economist James Buchanan cataloged in “Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes”, Macro Santa’s magical sack provides a pseudo-scientific justification for pandering politicians to pilfer from the future, buying votes and building bigger government in the name of stimulating the economy“. - John Papola

Link to the entire article appears below:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2011/12/22/macro-santa-and-the-austerity-grinch/

 

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Austerity vs. Stimulus: a False Choice?


Above is a CNBC Squawkbox video from 11/07. Note 8 minutes to 9:50. Below is an excerpt of the text which is of interest:

Question/statement by Liesman of CNBC: If you look at the jobs numbers, there certainly should be higher or would be -- there would be more robust numbers that could engender more confidence if the state and local governments weren't laying off.

Answer by John Ryding of RDO Economics: Steve, let me make this point. I always believe that the distinction between austerity and stimulus is a false choice. It's about sustainability of government programs and the problem is we have a large fiscal deficit at the time of two unsustainable government programs, Medicare and Social Security are kicking in. Now we have to reform those programs ultimately. So they remain viable for the long term. But the U.S. has as many problems with political groups blocking reform....

What Ryding is stating is that X amount of public sector workers, that is completely unsustainable, replaced by a new level of X-1 public sector workers, is not “austerity”. Rather it’s a basic business budget proposition. That remaining at level X as a stimulus approach is a false choice.

An item worth considering is how did one arrive at X amount of public sector workers? X was achieved with state government experiencing increasing tax revenue 2002-2007 (which most states did experience) and additional debt (which many states exercised). Underlying these two phenomena leading to level X amount of public sector workers was politicos that had the same exact mindset as residential homeowners, that is, what goes up continues to go up. Stated alternatively, the rise in tax revenue was considered a constant unending revenue stream leading to level X based upon endlessly rising revenue. In turn additional hiring caused by additional debt which was also based/financed upon the misplaced concept of endlessly rising revenue.

Hence X is/was a false number aka a bubble number. X-1 is the true number. Therefore, reducing to X-1 is not “austerity” its merely returning from a bubble number.

That being said, the counter argument [Keynesian counter argument] is that laying off the public sector workers (movement from X to X-1) reduces demand and hence is counter productive. That “stimulus” needs added to stop the movement from X to X-1 which then stabilizes or enhances demand.

One of the many problems with the Keynesian argument is that “stimulus” proposed to keep X from declining is in essence a continuation of a false bubble number. That in fact the argument regarding "stimulus" is to sustain a component of a larger previous bubble.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Keynesianism In One Easy Lesson


"For policy, the central fact is that Keynesian policy recommendations have no sounder basis, in a scientific sense, than recommendations of non-Keynesian economists or, for that matter, non economists". -

After Keynesian Economics aka After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, page 57, Lucas and Sargent.


http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf19/conf19.pdf

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Keynesianism: economic arguments or political arguments?

Maybe, just maybe Keynes merely had an opinion regarding economics aka The General Theory. Maybe, just maybe Keynesianism is the opinion turned into a branch of politics. Maybe, just maybe the politician has become dependent upon Keynesianism and Keynesianism dependent upon politician. Maybe, just maybe Keynesianism is a perpetuated phenomena that empowers the politico and has nothing to do with economics.

Consider media reports describing Keynesian arguments. Are the reports more descriptive of economic arguments or are the reports describing a politician or political arguments?

The following may be enlightening:

(A) “Keynes was exceedingly effective in persuading a broad group—economists, policymakers, government officials, and interested citizens—of the two concepts implicit in his letter to Hayek: first, the public interest concept of government; second, the benevolent dictatorship concept that all will be well if only good men are in power. Clearly, Keynes’s agreement with “virtually the whole” of the Road to Serfdom did not extend to the chapter titled “Why the Worst Get on Top.”

Keynes believed that economists (and others) could best contribute to the improvement of society by investigating how to manipulate the levers actually or potentially under control of the political authorities so as to achieve desirable ends, and then persuading benevolent civil servants and elected officials to follow their advice. The role of voters is to elect persons with the right moral values to office and then let them run the country“.
(1)

(B) "The fundamental principle of socialism is that its is appropriate to use force to organize society, to take from some and give to others. The government has nothing to give. The government is simply a mechanism which has the power to take from some to give to others. It is a way in which some people can spend other peoples' money for the benefit of a third party - and not so incidentally themselves". (2)

(C)  For policy, the central fact is that Keynesian policy recommendations have no sounder basis, in a scientific sense, than recommendations of non-Keynesian economists or, for that matter, non economists. (3)

Notes:

 

 

 
(1) Milton Friedman, Richmond Federal Reserve Economic Quarterly, volume 83/2 Spring 1997.

http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/1997/spring/pdf/friedman.pdf

(2) The Invisible Hand in Economics and Politics, Milton Friedman, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1981, p11.

(3) After Keynesian Economics aka After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, page 57, Lucas and Sargent.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Tinkering Through Spending by Some People

Consider this observation by Milton Friedman regarding Keynes and the advent of Keynesianism:

“Keynes was exceedingly effective in persuading a broad group—economists, policymakers, government officials, and interested citizens—of the two concepts implicit in his letter to Hayek: first, the public interest concept of government; second, the benevolent dictatorship concept that all will be well if only good men are in power. Clearly, Keynes’s agreement with “virtually the whole” of the Road to Serfdom did not extend to the chapter titled “Why the Worst Get on Top.”

Keynes believed that economists (and others) could best contribute to the improvement of society by investigating how to manipulate the levers actually or potentially under control of the political authorities so as to achieve desirable ends, and then persuading benevolent civil servants and elected officials to follow their advice. The role of voters is to elect persons with the right moral values to office and then let them run the country“.
(1)

 

Special attention needs paid to this passage: “…improvement of society by investigating how to manipulate the levers actually or potentially under control of the political authorities so as to achieve desirable ends…”. Keynes basically created a free pass for politicos through the mechanism of government to “tinker”. Keynesianism has institutionalized “tinkering”.

Going one more step and combining two Milton Friedman observations, take the above observation and the above highlighted passage and consider the following:

"The fundamental principle of socialism is that its is appropriate to use force to organize society, to take from some and give to others. The government has nothing to give. The government is simply a mechanism which has the power to take from some to give to others. It is a way in which some people can spend other peoples' money for the benefit of a third party - and not so incidentally themselves". (2)

Considering the two observations together, it strikes one that the only item of consequence of The General Theory for the politico is deficit spending or “spending”. Keynes and Keynesianism political-economy appears to boil down to an attempt to legitimize tinkering by “some people” i.e. politicos.

Tinkering through spending by some people is not an empirical proposition. Stated alternatively, tinkering through spending by some people is merely a notional proposition, a vision, or quite frankly no more than an opinion. It would logically follow that if we have a notional proposition, vision, and opinion…. then tinkering through spending by some people would be/will be supported and perpetuated by arguments that are notional propositions, vision oriented, and opinion based.

Step back for a moment, keeping in mind tinkering through spending by some people is supported and perpetuated by arguments that are notional propositions, vision oriented, and opinion based; exactly what kind-type arguments have been put forward in the last eighty years regarding government intervention into the economy? The track record of these notionally based intentions vs. the actual results? Tinkering through spending by some people, the summation there of, has produced exactly what? What grand cumulative positive result can one point to?

Hence we have no positive result. We have the constant and relentless continuation of notional propositions, vision oriented, and opinion based arguments regardless of the non-positive result. Which basically accumulates into the concept of “judge us by our intentions and not our results“. Which would lead one to surmise that tinkering through spending by some people is not a public policy concept but rather a political power concept. That Keynesianism is merely an institutionalized support argument for political power or the power of the state. Which circles one back to this statement by Friedman:

“The government has nothing to give. The government is simply a mechanism which has the power to take from some to give to others. It is a way in which some people can spend other peoples' money for the benefit of a third party - and not so incidentally themselves.”

 

 
Notes:
 

 

 

(1) Milton Friedman, Richmond Federal Reserve Economic Quarterly, volume 83/2 Spring 1997.
http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/1997/spring/pdf/friedman.pdf

(2) The Invisible Hand in Economics and Politics, Milton Friedman, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1981, p11.

 

 



Friday, August 19, 2011

Why Does Keynesianism Drag On as a Zombie Branch of Economics?

Here is a question: why did Keynesianism not die in the late 1970’s? Stated alternatively, why does Keynesianism drag on as a zombie branch of economics?

Its likely important to point out that Keynes wrote the General Theory as merely his answer to the economic problems of the day. One might say the General Theory is not good or bad, its merely one man’s educated opinion.

Consider the following regarding “why” Keynesianism will not die and has become the zombie that roams the earth during full moons.

Many have pointed out the flaws in the General Theory e.g. Lucas and Sargent , After Keynesian Economics.(1) Many others have empirically pointed out the flaws. Hence the theory is flawed. Moreover, the results of applying the theory are flawed. That is,  results speak for themselves. However Keynesianism lives on in a persistent zombie like fashion.

Maybe the “why” regarding Keynesianism roaming the earth as zombie economics exists in the 1988 Milton Friedman essay entitled John Maynard Keynes. The essay was republished in the 1997 spring edition of the Richmond Federal Reserve Economic Quarterly. (2) The following appears in the essay on pages 20 and 21. Friedman wrote:

“Keynes was exceedingly effective in persuading a broad group—economists, policymakers, government officials, and interested citizens—of the two concepts implicit in his letter to Hayek: first, the public interest concept of government; second, the benevolent dictatorship concept that all will be well if only good men are in power. Clearly, Keynes’s agreement with “virtually the whole” of the Road to Serfdom did not extend to the chapter titled “Why the Worst Get on Top.”

Keynes believed that economists (and others) could best contribute to the
improvement of society by investigating how to manipulate the levers actually or potentially under control of the political authorities so as to achieve desirable ends, and then persuading benevolent civil servants and elected officials to follow their advice. The role of voters is to elect persons with the right moral values to office and then let them run the country.

From an alternative point of view, economists (and others) can best contribute to the improvement of society by investigating the framework of political institutions that will best assure that an individual government employee or elected official who, in Adam Smith’s words, “intends only his own gain . . .is . . . led by an invisible hand to promote an end that was no part of his intention,” and then persuading the voters that it is in their self-interest to adopt such a framework. The task, that is, is to do for the political market what Adam Smith so largely did for the economic market.

Keynes’s view has been enormously influential—if only by strongly reinforcing a pre-existing attitude. Many economists have devoted their efforts to social engineering of precisely the kind that Keynes engaged in and advised others to engage in. And it is far from clear that they have been wrong to do so. We must act within the system as it is. We may regret that government has the powers it does; we may try our best as citizens to persuade our fellow citizens to eliminate many of those powers; but so long as they exist, it is often, though by no means always, better that they be exercised efficiently than inefficiently. Moreover, given that the system is what it is, it is entirely proper for individuals to conform and promote their interests within it. An approach that takes for granted that government employees and officials are acting as benevolent dictators to promote in a disinterested way what they regard as the public’s conception of the “general interest” is bound to contribute to an expansion in governmental intervention in the economy—regardless of the economic theory employed. A monetarist no less than a Keynesian interpretation of economic fluctuations can lead to a fine-tuning approach to economic policy.”

The above statement reveals the social engineering aspect, the politico being engaged in manipulation of the economy for supposed beneficial ends, and even includes a role for the bureaucrat. Hence in the grand scheme of things, those that advocate social engineering [central planning to achieve specific results based on their particular vision], the politico who craves power, and the bureaucrat that craves security find Keynesianism a political perpetuation of their view, power, and security. That is to say, Keynesianism is no longer an economic concept it’s a pure political perpetuation vehicle.

Hence Keynesianism, in the long run, did in fact die, it merely roams the earth as a political zombie.


Notes:

(1)A paper presented at a June 1978 conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and published in its After Keynesian Economics aka After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and high Unemployment. Conference Series No. 19.

http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf19/conf19d.pdf


(2) Milton Friedman, Richmond Federal Reserve Economic Quarterly, volume 83/2 Spring 1997.
http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/1997/spring/pdf/friedman.pdf